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The Halftime Show: Fed Stays Put, Bond Markets Rally!

Uncertainty needs attention in order for it to make you second guess yourself. Instead, wait for trends to change, and then make changes. On this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s Halftime, Pete Carmasino goes over some thoughts on interest rates and when the Fed will finally cut. He points out many times last year that show the Fed has never not cut as unemployment starts to rise. He then presents a chart all the way back to 1955 validating that thesis. Pete reviews the overbought nature of the markets on the StockChartsACP platform using the Bullish Percent index; he’s been using these since the 1990s to help navigate market behavior. This time was no different, as markets pulled back after a monster 3-month run. He reviews the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as well, pointing out that the bond prices are rallying in the face of a low January hiring number that came out today.

He next looks at the SDPR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE), which is on the ropes; however, there was a clue in mid-January from Goldman Sachs’ Prime desk. Hedge funds were net short financials, and, after NYCB made an announcement to cut its dividend, the stock dropped 37%. Pete shows where the Power Gauge technical indicators would have never had you in this name since October. Finally, Pete gives a quick overview of the major Indexes, along with a quick review of the Power Gauge factors, and a quick look at Amazon and Meta prior to EPS reports tonight.

This video originally premiered on February 1, 2024. You can watch on our dedicated Halftime by Chaikin Analytics page on StockCharts TV.

You can view all previously recorded episodes of Halftime by Chaikin Analytics with Pete Carmasino at this link.

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